October 07, 2024
The fun thing about the rapid pace of VR development is that this answer can change every six months or so. The latest iteration of the Rift is called Crescent Bay, and it delivers an experience leaps and bounds superior to the original developer kit. That progress happened in a little over a year.
I'm a jaded consumer. I find it hard to get excited about a new phone, TV, tablet, app, or game. Even the latest iPhone or Galaxy Note is not so far removed from the Palm Pilot TX I used to take lecture notes in college. Vast improvements in usability, fidelity, and usefulness, but a linear evolution nonetheless.
I've attended a few recent VR meetups and demo nights here in San Francisco, and can personally attest to a surge of raw and spontaneous amazement at what this medium will be capable of. It is revolutionary, and literally awe-inspiring in terms of its potential for human-computer interaction, digital artistry, and the consumption of information. I'm not the only one who's noticed that the response is categorically different from the typical mild interest and anticipation one might observe for some newfangled version of something we already have.
A common counter is that VR is indeed a novelty, which explains the giddy reactions and over-enthusiasm, but as a platform, it's lacking in the value-for-cost proposition that would fuel widespread adoption beyond the hardcore gaming set.
This critique might prove to be true, but only as a function of timing, not fundamentals. The current VR mini-renaissance is demonstrating that with adequate financial and community support, known obstacles can be overcome at a rapid pace. VR will not be an overnight success, and if the Oculus Rift was suddenly available tomorrow, it might fail to gain traction. Resolution, content, peripherals, and user-friendliness all still need significant development. The adoption barrier of needing a high-powered gaming PC to run the thing must be addressed.
However, considering the tangible progress made over the last year, merely another year of maturation has a good chance of generating the several breakthroughs necessary to jump-start forward momentum into the mainstream. Beyond purely technical improvements, a crucial difference between the 90's VR hype train and today is the financial runway already established by large investors and the FB acquisition of Oculus. There is much less economic pressure on VR companies to rush to market, to be immediately profitable, or rely on gimmickry for attention. Talented engineers and entrepreneurs have the breathing room to properly invest in R&D, and make strategic long-term decisions that span multiple device life cycles. The permeation of VR into the market will coincide with accelerating improvements in quality, accessibility, and cost until the two lines intersect, creating a paradigm shift not dissimilar to the emergence of the Internet.
It's a pretty bold prediction, but I'm confident it's merely a question of when not if. Based on the observed trajectory of super-recent technological improvements in the area, coupled with huge cash injections and manufacturing partnerships, I think it will take most people by surprise.
