October 07, 2024
Here’s a projection of how VR will advance, depending of course if the large players to do their part properly:
Year 1 (thru 2020): New headsets like Oculus Quest get introduced to consumers; Non-gaming content is small but growing; 5G is getting started. VR cameras are getting affordable and tools for creating, editing VR content are becoming more user-friendly. Blockchain-based cryptocurrency solutions, such as (but not limited to) Libra introduced by Facebook, get good marks from privacy hawks and may represent an approach for monetizing VR content distribution.
Year 2 (thru 2021): Ordinary people (non-gamers) are getting more comfortable with hands-on use of VR and this is starting to spread, around the world, starting from major cities into smaller townships and municipalities leading to a new wave of consumer-focused (similar to early/good days of Blockbuster) VR startups.
Affordable VR cameras continue to emerge, each offering not just better resolution and field of view but also improved stabilization. Real-time co-participation is generally available for end-users, thereby making VR no longer solitary or isolating.
Year 3 (thru 2022): Because VR promises to reduce some travel (and thereby associated carbon footprint), many governments are encouraged to incentivize it as a “green” technology - especially since participation can be authenticated and is relatively immune from deepfake type manipulations.
Year 4 (thru 2023): Laptops built for VR get introduced (with DisplayPort 2 built-in) and assures resolutions up to 16K. Fiber to the homes is increasingly rolled out in urban areas and major metros.
Year 5 (thru 2024): VR is now firmly established in the workplace (and schools and hospitals)- even if its footprint is small for the present. Just as speakerphone established itself 25 years ago in corporate conference rooms, a VR camera and a viewer is mostly standard for many offices.
When discussing an event or a meeting, this new option has become a part of the vernacular: “I am going to VR into it”. At this point, most households (who can reasonably afford a smartphone, etc) have at least one system for viewing/watching/consuming VR content. With your specific question about assembling a particular Ikea furniture item or arranging your Ikebana arrangement, you will use VR first. Showing off your Thanksgiving turkey? VR-live sharing is the way to go.
Years 6 to 10 (thru 2030): We cannot envision - at this time - the full scope of VR in 2030 because as such the peoples have not had much first-hand experience with VR and this is undermining our ability to “think in VR”. This will change and evolve as VR gets more established.
I expect, for example, that there will be news broadcasting networks that will primarily host VR content in real-time and instead of watching flat2d images that we do today, we will be virtually present in that scene and able to move our heads, eyes to get a sense of ambiance (instead of being limited by the source camera’s orientation, as we do today). Similar extrapolations for telemedicine, distance learning, and other aspects look feasible.
This is copied from my earlier answer which provides more background and context: Atul Salgaonkar's answer to Where do you see virtual reality in 2030?
